↔ = flat. * = no update on weekends.
Sources linked to in left side.
⊗ 4/2/21: Longest streak of 0 deaths (9 days) since pandemic began. Data Table ↓
⊗ 31 days of 0 deaths since 2/1/21 (61 days), Average .51 deaths per day. Weekly Avg Chart↓
⊗ March 2021 had second lowest average daily deaths by month (.58) compared to June 2020 (.5). Average Daily Deaths By Month↓
⊗ 4/1/21: 10 day moving average of deaths per day has reached 0 for the first time since pandemic death tracking began, 3/29/20. Deaths Per Day, 3/29/20 - Present Chart↓
⊗ 4/1/21: The Linear Trend Line of Average Deaths Per Day since 9/12/20 (2.4) has tipped downward for the first time, crossing below the average (2.6)Deaths Per Day, 3/29/20 - Present Chart↓
⊗ 2/14/21: with numbers of deaths falling significantly locally, state-, country- and world-wide, we will continue to update numbers daily, but charts every 2-3 days, unless the trend reverses.
⊗ 1/31/21: Has the virus reached the end of its flashpoint? Death rates are falling across the board. Narrative↓
The daily average death rate is falling below 2, down from 7+ in December. Graph↓
⊗ January became the 3rd highest month of deaths only 8 days into the New Year, Graph↓ and the 2nd highest month of deaths ( / ) on the 20th day of the New Year, higher than November ( / Pie Chart↓
⊗ December () + January's () combined total = . January's deaths were exactly 100 more than December's and 31 more than November's ().
Washoe County Breaking Records Near Daily
Washoe's four highest single day death rates have occurred within the past :Data Table ↑
Washoe's first and only day of 12 deaths occurred .
Washoe's first and only day of 13 deaths occurred .
Washoe's first and only day of 14 deaths occurred .
Washoe's two days of highest deaths (15) occurred ago (300% higher than the previous day) and .
Washoe's average deaths per day is , up () from the avg of Mar-Sep (). Chart ↑
February's total deaths to date is ,
( of the way through the month),
% of the Mar-Sep Average of (), but far lower than December's daily average of deaths.
January 2021's monthly average of daily deaths was 3.58, up 478% from the average of March-September (). Chart ↑
January () became the 3rd highest month of deaths only 8 days into the New Year.
January () became the 2nd highest month of deaths 20 days into the New Year.
December () was the highest death rate month.
December () had more deaths than Mar - Aug () combined. Pie Chart ↑
Deaths in the 3 months Sep - Nov were coincidentally also .
December () had more deaths than July - Nov (), combined.
December () had more deaths than the first 8 months of the pandemic, Mar - Oct (), combined.
December's deaths totaled 43% of all deaths in 2020.
December's monthly average of daily deaths was 7.03, up 6.28 (937%) from the average of March-September (). Chart ↑
November () was the second highest month of deaths.
November had more deaths than Mar - Jun () combined. Pie Chart ↑
of all Washoe deaths have occurred in the past : Nov () + Dec () + Jan () = .
(More than twice March-September: ). Total to date: . Pie Chart ↑
The average monthly death rate from Apr - Sep was
10 fewer than # of days in a month.
Today's average monthly death rate is , more that of Apr-Sep ().
more than # of days in a month. Chart ↑
Washoe's 2 days of 10 deaths occurred and ago.
Washoe's 3 days of 9 deaths occurred in the last .
Washoe's 5 days of 8 deaths occurred , and ago with the rest in the past .
Washoe's 5 days of 7 deaths occurred since December 1st.
Seven of the eleven days of 6 deaths have occurred in the past , including .
The last day of 5 deaths occurred on 1/23/21, .
Opinion based on Data Analysis
Trump Rally the Take-Off Point for Washoe Calamity?
September was Washoe County's 2nd lowest full-month death rate. We were winning. An exponential spike in deaths began three weeks after Trump's rally—largely maskless with scant social-distancing while singing and shouting chants—of an estimated 5,000 people in Minden, Nevada, on September 12th, a probable mass exposure event that spread throughout Northern Nevada.
Washoe County looks to be in the throes of the Hallowe'en one night super-spreader episode which appears to have been riding the viral coattails from the Minden mass exposure event.
The Thanksgiving holiday spread has not yet been factored into the death rate. By our analysis, that bump is expected to emerge circa December 17 into the Christmas Day holiday, only increasing the record-breaking numbers we are seeing from early October to mid-December. That could begin a long, dark night of higher death rates as the new year turns. We are anticipating more records to be broken during the Christmas and New Years holiday period.
We were hoping in earnest that our model of 18-22 deaths per day at the Christmas - New Years holiday would fail. Unfortunately, what we predicted as the Thanksgiving surge of deaths to begin on 12/17/20 is proving to be accurate.
On 12/18/20, Washoe recorded the highest daily death toll yet, 15. The Thanksgiving super-spreader episode, a third sub-surge of the second wave, riding the coattails of the previous 2 sub-surges: The Trump Rally mass exposure event 9/12 and the subsequent Hallowe'en super-spreader episode 10/31, comprise Washoe County's second wave of COVID-19. The third sub-surge is just beginning with a potential fourth component of the second wave, a Christmas super-spreader episode.
We are now in uncharted territory where predicting a top death rate is an unknown. We hope it will stay 15-22, but higher numbers could ensue.
If Washoe residents adhere to county, state, CDC and WHO guidance (See Resources) and stay at home for the winter holiday time, an even higher spike in death rates at the end of January into February (Valentine's Day) could be avoided.
Calm Before the Storm?
Our models currently predict a surge in deaths beginning tomorrow, 1/13 – 1/15/21. With hospitalizations and infections currently lower than the previous Trump Rally – Mid-December trend, perhaps Washoe County won't ramp up to the 15 – 20 deaths we once predicted for mid-January.
But it's hard to ignore the strong numbers: January occupied the 3rd highest death month 8 days into the new year.
With deaths currently trending to lows of 5 and a two-day run of 3 deaths, coupled with the start, albeit slow, of vaccination distribution, we are hopeful that Washoe may have seen its last days of 15 deaths. But this quieter time seems more likely to be a calm period before a storm that will bring Washoe back to record-breaking deaths per day.
Update, 1/13: Today's death toll of 15 is one of two highest days of deaths matching 12/18.
Today January has a monthly death rate of 70 deaths, 13%, the third highest monthly death toll, just under November's record-breaking death total of 80, currently 14% of all monthly deaths.
Hope-inspiring numbers coming in. Washoe is heading back to the pre-Trump rally numbers of September, the 2nd lowest full month of deaths on record.
Is the virus burning out?
Death rate numbers are falling rapidly across the board. Washoe is reporting 0 deaths today, trending down to to September's numbers, the 2nd lowest full month of deaths. Nevada reported a total of 6 deaths in the past 24 hours, far fewer than the 50-100 being reported even just a few days ago. Likewise the US numbers have fallen by 1000 each day over the past few days. Even worldwide—despite the maelstroms currently engulfing Mexico, Portugal, India, Peru and starting again in Australia—deaths are falling by 2k day-after-day.
Is this a calm before a firestorm of vaccine-resistant mutations, or is the virus reaching the end of its virulency? Has the virus run its course and is meeting its lifespan head-on, or are the vaccines much more effective than previously thought in not only reducing life-threatening symptoms but also the virus' spread? Whether a combination or something else in play, at the moment, the death rate is showing some very good, indeed hopeful, numbers globally.
Numbers continue to fall nationally, statewide and locally. Washoe has had 1 day of death twice in the first week of February. Data Table ↑ The average deaths per day since 3/29/20 () is sitting on the polynomial moving average (order 4).Chart ↑Weekly averages are falling sharply (2.1), Chart ↑ while monthly averages are stabilized at 55-56. Graph ↑ February's daily deaths average for the partial month (2.5) is sitting near the total daily average of deaths by month (2.02). Chart ↑
Nevada went way down into single digit deaths for a few days, then came back up to the 40-50 range, but was at 33 yesterday and 24 today, trending downward. Table ↑.
Nationally, the US had a very high death report on 4 February, but the surrounding days are much lower than average, including February 1st's report of 1,876; February 5th's death total of 3,553 and yesterday's report of 2,820.Table ↑.
Washoe: 0 deaths last 24 hours. State of Nevada reporting 2 deaths statewide in the past 24 hours. Nationally, deaths are ½ what they were were the day before which were ½ the day before that. Deaths continue to fall similarly worldwide breaking below the 5 digit mark today for the first time in a protracted period.
Washoe's daily average of deaths has begun to fall from an extended period high of 1.962 yesterday to 1.956 per day today. Still 1.96, but will break to 1.95 for the first time in weeks, if the trend holds.
If the variants are more deadly as believed, the trend is not reflected in the numbers of deaths at this time. The US had a big spike in deaths on 2/4, but the decreasing trend before and after that date make it an anomaly flattened by the 7 day average.
⊗ Washoe County Vaccination Updates
The Washoe County Regional COVID-19 Response Team is planning for a county-wide distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine, in coordination with state and federal partners.
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If you're concerned about how to pay your mortgage or rent due to the coronavirus national emergency, read on for information on what to do now, and what your options are for mortgage and rent payment relief.
Thrasher said he is telling his friend’s story with the family’s permission in the hopes that people can learn just how easily the virus can spread at casual gatherings. He said it is also important to seek medical care when they first get sick.